Monday, October 27, 2008

Demographic Implosion in Muslim Societies

It is well known that Europe suffers from low birth-rates, which are leading to demographic decline and unprecedented strains on the state welfare systems. As of 2006, all European Union nations were below the magic 2.1 children per woman rate needed to sustain a stable population. The unhealthy worker-to-retiree ratio has been the main impetus behind efforts to increase immigration. Most of that immigration comes from the Muslim world, contributing to the myriad social problems we see in Europe today.

What is less well-known is that the birthrates in the Muslim world are plunging as well. For example, Sharia-governed Iran has only 1.8 births per woman, below replacement level and about the same rate as Norway. Nearly every Islamic country is headed in the same direction.

See the full story at the Jerusalem Post.

Just as the world at large is experiencing an unprecedented collapse of demography, the UN Population Division reports a sharp decline of fertility rates (number of births per woman) in Muslim and Arab countries, excluding Afghanistan and Yemen.

The myth of "doubling population every 20 years" has been shattered against the cliffs of demography.


The collapse of fertility rates in Muslim countries is a derivative of modernization and Westernization, rapid urbanization and internal security concerns by dictators fearing the consequences of the widening gap between population growth and economic growth. As a result, the UN Population Division has reduced its 2050 population projections by 25 percent, from 12 billion to 9 billion, possibly shrinking to 7.4 billion.

For instance, the fertility rate in Iran - the flagship of radical Islam - has declined from nine births per woman, 30 years ago, to 1.8 births in 2007. The Muslim religious establishment has also played a key role in decreasing fertility rates in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, from eight and seven births per woman 30 years ago, to less than four and less than 2.5 respectively in 2007.

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1 comment:

Snake Oil Baron said...

Meanwhile Christian evangelists and secular apostates continue to convert Muslims both in the Islamic world and the Western immigrant communities. As populations in Arab and Muslim nations begin to move past the youth bulge, people smugglers and employers of legitimate immigrants have to look further afield to the Christian and animist sub-Saharan states which still have high fertility rates and to China and Eastern Europe. Already there are a lot more African Christians living in the "no-go" regions of "Eurabia".

Satellite TV, blogs and cellphones are bringing new and disruptive ideas into the Islamic societies.

And a few European nations seem to have discovered a secret to rising native fertility - flexible labour markets (women can actually decide to leave a job for a few years or go part time rather than being "encouraged" to use the leftist-approved maternity leave then back to work model) and less rigid gender roles (dads who change diapers). European nations (and industrialized Asian ones) which have rigid gender roles and over-regulated labour markets see lower total fertility despite the higher religious adherence which was supposed to bless Catholics with super fertility. Muslim societies which are seeing declining fertility due to female literacy and job participation and such, will have to decide whether to remain traditional or hit the demographic winter at full speed.